“In recent years, many Arab states reintroduced military service or they have introduced conscription for the first time,” writes the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI), an independent Italian think tank dedicated to the study of international political and economic dynamics. “A trend that is (re)emerging” throughout the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region, the vast area stretching from Morocco to Iran and including most of the Middle East and Maghreb states. “Governments’ choices,” ISPI continues, “are driven mainly by economic factors, social and cultural objectives, and not necessarily by strictly military intentions. A dynamic that, according to the research centre, reverses what happened after the Cold War and involves countries with different levels of state capacity. Recently, countries such as Kuwait (2017), Morocco (2019) and Jordan (2020) have reintroduced conscription, to which must be added those that introduced it for the first time, such as the petro-monarchies of the Persian Gulf: Qatar in 2013 and the United Arab Emirates in 2014. In Iraq, it is being discussed, with a debate that has already reached the parliamentary stage. This has interrupted the trend that, after 1990, with the fall of the Berlin Wall and the dissolution of the Soviet Union (USSR), had led to the abolition of conscription in the Middle East and the Maghreb (as in the West) in favour of the professionalisation of the armed forces.

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One trend, three dynamics

Three open questions

WHO DOES WHAT The Italian Institute for International Political Studies

FOCUS 1: Conscription as cash cow in Syria

FOCUS 2: No gender equality

 

One trend, three dynamics

Since the 2010s, various countries in the MENA region have witnessed the “fragmentation and fracturing of the state”, according to ISPRI. This is the case, for example, in Libya and Yemen, where “contested national institutions collapsed, paving the way for at least a duplication of power centres”, the research centre explains. “In these contexts, armies are no longer national players: armed groups have become the pillars of the defence structure, with segments of former armies coalescing around different armed formations. In such countries, “due to the lack of unified institutions”, ISPRI says, “the compulsory military draft is here out of the agenda”. The second dynamic highlighted by the research centre is “state crisis and resilience”. There are countries, such as Morocco, Tunisia, Jordan and the members of the Cooperation Council for the Persian Gulf States (Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar), where due to deteriorating economic conditions and top-down reforms’ state institutions are facing significant economic and social transformations. Conscription, therefore, ‘plays a social role in alleviating unemployment and, more generally, in instilling a sense of national cohesion and belonging in the midst of economic change and external threats’. The third and most recent dynamic identified by ISPI: is the fragmentation and restructuring of states. Two cases are particularly meaningful: Syria, where conscription was useful to President Al Assad after the civil war broke out in 2011. It helped social control in the territories held and reconquered after Hezbollah, Iran and Russia played a decisive role in the regime’s survival. Or in neighbouring Iraq, where, according to the research centre, conscription ‘could serve nation-rebuilding goals’ and thus have a ‘political function’. Such purposes include ‘combating unemployment, (re)building national identity, or attempting to impose territorial control’. Finally, it should be remembered that in Arab countries, armies are ‘often politicised and in some cases loyal to the government in power rather than to the state’.

Three open questions

According to ISPI, three questions are open regarding the return to the compulsory draft in the Arab world, The first is financial sustainability: as some of the countries in question are experiencing worsening economic conditions, the compulsory draft “becomes a significant financial burden for cashless governments”. The second is the nature of the armies. “Some of the countries that have introduced or reintroduced conscription are also focusing on building professional armies,” the research centre points out. “Regardless of the creation of reserve forces, conscription has neither purely military nor primary purposes, but rather social and cultural objectives in support of political intentions,” the ISPI notes. Therefore, “the return of the draft goes in tandem with the armies’ professionalisation process – or at least does not clash with it”. The third issue raised concerns the relationship between civilians and the military. Since “Arab governments didn’t introduce conscription to alter ongoing balances between the military and civilian spheres”, the research centre points out, but rather to “crystallise the status quo” and “recalibrate power balance with other security competitors”, as in the case of Iraq.

WHO DOES WHAT
The Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)

“In recent years, many Arab states reintroduced military service or they have introduced conscription for the first time,” writes the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI), an independent Italian think tank dedicated to the study of international political and economic dynamics. “A trend that is (re)emerging” throughout the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region, the vast area stretching from Morocco to Iran and including most of the Middle East and Maghreb states. “Governments’ choices,” ISPI continues, “are driven mainly by economic factors, social and cultural objectives, and not necessarily by strictly military intentions. A dynamic that, according to the research centre, reverses what happened after the Cold War and involves countries with different levels of state capacity. Recently, countries such as Kuwait (2017), Morocco (2019) and Jordan (2020) have reintroduced conscription, to which must be added those that introduced it for the first time, such as the petro-monarchies of the Persian Gulf: Qatar in 2013 and the United Arab Emirates in 2014. In Iraq, it is being discussed, with a debate that has already reached the parliamentary stage. This has interrupted the trend that, after 1990, with the fall of the Berlin Wall and the dissolution of the Soviet Union (USSR), had led to the abolition of conscription in the Middle East and the Maghreb (as in the West) in favour of the professionalisation of the armed forces.

FOCUS 1
Conscription as cash cow in Syria

One of the focal points of the ISPI dossier on conscription in the MENA region is Syria, where conscription was first introduced in 1947, more than a year after the country’s independence. The framework law, promulgated by Legislative Decree 30 of 2007, has been amended nearly 25 times since the civil war of 2011, varying “due to the political and military conditions in Syria and the region”, the ISPI dossier explains. What has changed over time is first of all the duration: from 18 months in 1947 to 30 months in 1968, and then back to the starting point. “After the Syrian revolution in 2011, it became almost impossible to end one’s draft. In many cases, compulsory military service lasted 7-9 years or more, which is a direct reason to avoid service or to desert,” the study centre reports. Another important issue is the exemption from military service granted to Syrians living abroad. ISPI points out that ‘the regime has resorted to this change because of its desperate need for foreign currency, and the value of the exemption fees has increased even for short stays abroad’.The most recent change was in 2020 when the value of the exemption fee was increased to $7,000 for those who have been out of the country for at least four years; $8,000 for at least three years; $9,000 for at least two years; and $10,000 for less than 12 months. For the first time, reservists could benefit from this rule: the fee is $5,000 to be exempted from service if they have been abroad for at least one year.

FOCUS 2
No gender equality

“Women’s participation in some Arab armed forces dates back to the mid-1900s,” the ISPI dossier notes. “Some countries were at the forefront of integrating women into the armed forces.” Under Algerian President Houari Boumediene (1975-78), for example, a policy was officially introduced allowing them to join the armed forces as officers and non-commissioned officers. The presence of women in the armed forces has also become a reality in Arab countries, albeit slowly. The research centre’s dossier cites the case of Major Mariam al-Mansouri, the first Emirates woman to become an air force pilot in the United Arab Emirates, who flew an F-16 fighter jet and led air strikes against the self-proclaimed Islamic State in Syria in 2014. Then there is Aisha bint Rashid Al Khalifa, who has become Bahrain’s first female fighter pilot in 2018. Or Jana Sader, whose presence was publicly claimed by the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) in 2023. Where women are allowed to enlist, it is on a voluntary basis, although “most Arab states continue to limit the role of female soldiers to mainly administrative positions and non-combat units,” ISPI reports.